![]() Global Equity Forward Profit Margins, 2005-2023 (BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from MSCI and Refinitiv Datastream, March 2023) We prefer short-term bonds for income and emerging market (EM) equities. We see an earnings hit on top of that from recession as central banks fight sticky inflation - and are poised to hold rates higher for longer. We think corporate margins could get hit by higher costs and reduced pricing power as goods shortages ease. We think earnings offer little support - expectations for this year are still too rosy. Stocks are starting to reflect the economic damage of rate hikes. In Europe, we like the consumer discretionary sector. We look for granular opportunities in sectors like energy, financials and healthcare. We overweight emerging market stocks and prefer them to developed market peers which we underweight. We prefer like short-dated government bonds for income. On top of that, we see a hit to earnings from recession as central banks are poised to hold rates higher for longer to fight inflation. ![]() We expect a recession to hit sales and higher costs to pinch margins. ![]() This comes just as cost pressures are mounting from higher wages and funding costs. That’s now reversing, causing companies’ pricing power to wane. The pandemic drove demand for goods away from services and created shortages. That changes the impact on company margins. That’s why we see major central banks creating recession as they attempt to get inflation down to their 2% targets. Tight labor markets are driving persistently higher inflation. ![]() We think company earnings offer little support, and expectations for this year are still too rosy.
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